Friday, 18 March 2011

A nice straightforward day....

Yesterday passed largely without incident or panic, the positions I took saw the markets move in the way I wanted to so I was never in the red.

I backed Liverpool v. Braga to end 0-0 at around 55 minutes with the intention of greening up around 70 minutes. In the end Liverpool were looking toothless up front so stayed in till around 80 minutes, pre-empting the fact that Liverpool would have a late surge in the last 10 that didn't happen.

Also traded on the Premier League darts laying Gary Anderson when it was clear for all see, that the crowd's antics were making restless. Sid even claimed he through a leg because of his embarassment, that is some accusation but he did look like he just wanted to be anywhere but at the oche at the end.

Day 17 £721.30

Wednesday, 16 March 2011

An update

Well I am now up to day 15 of increasing my bank by 2.5% each day and we are still on track. I am still none the wiser as to my ability to trade markets effectively or whether I have had 14 lucky days. It is definitely a skill and as much as anything psychology is important.

On a couple of occasions I have found myself down on the day I instead of accepting a loss I have chased and to be honest been lucky, instead of regrouping and waited for the right opportunity I have gone in over the top and come out ok. I think the lesson to be learned is not to be obsessed with your targets in such a way that it impairs your vision.

I think I have become more adept at spotting opportunities to trade in tennis which I am pretty happy about. Basketball is another sport I feel with plenty of trading opportunities, however patience is a virtue here I feel. My experience last night was a case in point. I decided to back the Knicks against the Pacers, wait for a decent Knicks lead and then lay off, midway through the second quarter I got jittery and switched to the Pacers and the Knicks got right back into the game leaving me red. In the end it was such a close encounter there were opportunities to back both teams at 6.0, the Pacers won and I ended up being able to green off. I know this is easy to say in hindsight but in the words of Corporal Jones 'Don't panic Mr Mainwairing' along with having planned exit points if things are not going as you envisaged would be a good lesson to take away from the experience.

Day 11 623.36
Day 12 634.38
Day 13 655.79
Day 14 679.89
Day 15 683.60
Day 16 699.73

I'm keen to get in touch with other trading enthusiasts so please feel free to get in touch on email, twitter or commenting below.

Sunday, 13 March 2011

India v. South Africa and the Betfair site outage

Daily profit - £11.60

An interesting day yesterday, where I feel learnt a fair bit and was slightly lucky to come out unscathed so all things considered a good day.

I decided to watch the cricket for a while before deciding on an entry point, as Tendulkar and Gambhir were flying I decided to go in @3.25 for 375 runs or more on this basis that both bastman were set and that they would bat stay in until the 43rd/44th over where I would exit the price at one point dropped to 2.0, which should have been my exit point, I have no explanation why I didn't get out at this point, it wasn't because I was being greedy. Anyway instead of limiting my losses on the 375 runs or more market, the fact that I could see a batting collapse coming (a power play is often the bowling sides best friend) I decided to lay 325 runs or more this left me in the red for if India scored 325-375 but I just didn't see this happening. The batting collapse did happen and I was left with no profit or loss.

The site outage left me with no ability to trade for the Arsenal Man Utd game which was slightly frustrating and I have now opened a Betdaq account should this happen again.

When the site was up again I started to watch Deportivo Cali v. Millonarios. I am the first to admit that I didn't have sufficient knowledge of the two teams before the match to take a position pre match so decided to watch the game and let it unfold. Both teams looked completely devoid of anything up front so the 1.56 price for the 0-0 in the second half looked excellent value. I was so confident that the game would finish 0-0 so instead of greening up I decided to let the bet ride. This led me to an interesting debate in my head about when to exit markets which I will share a bit later on.

Going to watch Milan v. Bari now. Think Milan will win comfortably but no value in the price. I will be on over 1.5 goals in this game as I do not think Bari will score but I do not have confidence in Milan to score 3.

Friday, 11 March 2011

End of Week 1

Well all in all it has been a successful first week. As you can see from the title of the blog I am relatively new to the world of trading sports markets. I work full time so the aim is for this to supplement my main income and basically see how far I can take this and have some fun along the way.

My strategy to begin with is to increase my bank by 2.5% compound interest every day. Using this method although gains are small to begin with they increase steadily over time, so much so that if my bank increases too (wishful thinking a this stage). I may change strategy altogether or at least decrease the % increase. As you can see the first 7 days have seen a profit each day, although on a couple of occasions I have found my chasing slightly, so I will ensure not to become obsessed with making a profit each day and accept that some days will inevitably bear a loss.

This blog is a way of keeping my discipline and penning my thoughts I hope will allow me to learn from my mistakes.

I was trading two games tonight Rennes v. Marseille and Utrecht v. Groningen.

Rennes v. Marseille

This was a classic example of me getting jittery and not having faith in my initial thoughts. I was on over 2.5 goals and the way the game developed I saw a narrow win for Rennes so I came out of the over 2.5 market for a small loss and then moved to Rennes in the outright market, what happened next, you've guessed it a Marseille goal. Panicking slightly (and this is something I need cut out quickly I switched to unders on the basis that Marseille are pretty good at defending leads and Rennes not so good when they have to chase the game. The game developed in such a way that I was able to break even from the game as a whole. I think the lesson I should bring away from this game is that have an exit strategy in mind before and not to leave a markey in a hurry.

Utrecht v. Groningen

I watched the first half of this game to see how the game was developing before deciding my entry point. At the beginning of the first Utrecht upped their game and were looking much more dangerous up front. Went in on Utrecht @ 2.32 and luckily a goal came shortly after. I greened up shortly after the goal at around 1.17.

So to conclude it has been a good first week. I have shown my bank increases below

Day1 500.00
Day2 518.79
Day3 537.00
Day4 542.15
Day5 554.36
Day6 568.59
Day7 581.48
Day8 608.36
Day9 614.25