Sunday 13 March 2011

India v. South Africa and the Betfair site outage

Daily profit - £11.60

An interesting day yesterday, where I feel learnt a fair bit and was slightly lucky to come out unscathed so all things considered a good day.

I decided to watch the cricket for a while before deciding on an entry point, as Tendulkar and Gambhir were flying I decided to go in @3.25 for 375 runs or more on this basis that both bastman were set and that they would bat stay in until the 43rd/44th over where I would exit the price at one point dropped to 2.0, which should have been my exit point, I have no explanation why I didn't get out at this point, it wasn't because I was being greedy. Anyway instead of limiting my losses on the 375 runs or more market, the fact that I could see a batting collapse coming (a power play is often the bowling sides best friend) I decided to lay 325 runs or more this left me in the red for if India scored 325-375 but I just didn't see this happening. The batting collapse did happen and I was left with no profit or loss.

The site outage left me with no ability to trade for the Arsenal Man Utd game which was slightly frustrating and I have now opened a Betdaq account should this happen again.

When the site was up again I started to watch Deportivo Cali v. Millonarios. I am the first to admit that I didn't have sufficient knowledge of the two teams before the match to take a position pre match so decided to watch the game and let it unfold. Both teams looked completely devoid of anything up front so the 1.56 price for the 0-0 in the second half looked excellent value. I was so confident that the game would finish 0-0 so instead of greening up I decided to let the bet ride. This led me to an interesting debate in my head about when to exit markets which I will share a bit later on.

Going to watch Milan v. Bari now. Think Milan will win comfortably but no value in the price. I will be on over 1.5 goals in this game as I do not think Bari will score but I do not have confidence in Milan to score 3.

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